How can you avoid the base rate fallacy?
To avoid being influenced by the base rate fallacy, consider the following strategies:
- Prioritize statistical data: Always consider the general frequency of an event before focusing on specific instances or results.
- Avoid overreliance on specifics: Don’t let compelling details overshadow overall statistical probabilities.
Apply Bayesian reasoning: Start with initial probabilities and systematically update them with new evidence to balance general data with specific information.